The current read
Exelixis remains a high-quality, cash-generative oncology business, but valuation has moved ahead of the near-term fundamental setup. Cabometyx continues to grow and the balance sheet is strong, yet the franchise faces a meaningful 2030–32 patent-duration question and zanzalintinib still needs to prove that it can become a genuine second franchise rather than an extension of the existing TKI business.
- With the shares already reflecting substantial confidence in zanzalintinib, we see an increasingly asymmetric setup around STELLAR-304: a positive result is substantially anticipated, while a miss would challenge the replacement-franchise narrative ahead of eventual Cabometyx erosion.